Mega Greninja ex Chaos Rising: 1 in 30 Boxes
The Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising (ME04) released May 22, 2026. After two and a half months of real pack openings, we can replace pre-release guesswork with actual numbers. The short version: the Mega Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare trades around $221, it shows up roughly once every 30 booster boxes, and it out-values the gold Mega Hyper Rare that everyone predicted would be the set's crown jewel. Here is the full breakdown.
The Big Chase: Mega Greninja ex SIR (116/086)
Pre-release consensus had the gold Mega Hyper Rare as the most valuable card in Chaos Rising. The market disagreed. Susumu Maeya's Special Illustration Rare — card 116/086 — settled in as the set's top card, and it is the most expensive English card the Mega Evolution era has printed so far.
Every Mega Greninja ex printing, current market price:
- 116/086 — Special Illustration Rare — ~$221
- 122/086 — Mega Hyper Rare (gold) — ~$193
- 100/086 — Ultra Rare (full art) — ~$13
- 022/086 — Double Rare — ~$1
Notice the cliff. The SIR is worth roughly 17x the full-art Ultra Rare of the exact same Pokémon. In the Mega Evolution era, the treatment carries the value, not the character.
The SIR has cooled from its launch peak. Raw lightly-played copies traded near $320 in early summer and drifted down through July as supply caught up — the normal post-release curve for a set that is still in print. Our pre-release estimate of $200–$350 landed in the right neighborhood; the $300–$500 call on the gold did not.
The Gold Mega Hyper Rare (122/086)
takuyoa's etched gold treatment is the last card in the set and by far the hardest to pull — roughly 1 in 950 packs, or about one copy per 26 booster boxes. Two large community openings totaling 268 packs produced zero copies between them.
At ~$193 it sits just below the SIR. That gap is worth internalizing: chasing the gold through sealed product costs multiples of simply buying the card. If you want it in your binder, buy the single.
The Other Five SIRs
Chaos Rising contains exactly six Special Illustration Rares, numbered 116 through 121. That number matters more than any single price, because when you finally hit the SIR slot you have a 1-in-6 shot at Greninja and a 5-in-6 shot at one of these:
Cinccino ex — 119/086 — ~$66
The genuine surprise of the set. Keiisin's cozy blanket-fort illustration turned a non-Mega, non-legendary Pokémon into the second-most-valuable card in Chaos Rising, comfortably ahead of two Mega SIRs. Artwork-driven demand keeps beating type-driven demand in this era, and Cinccino is the cleanest proof yet.
Mega Dragalge ex — 118/086 — ~$43
Kazumasa Yasukuni's neon-toxic piece is the highest-value Mega SIR after Greninja. The unusual dual-type design gave it exactly the niche collector appeal we expected, though it landed under our $60–$100 pre-release estimate.
Mega Floette ex — 117/086 — ~$34
Teeziro's stained-glass bloom is one of the prettiest cards in the set, but the AZ nostalgia premium never materialized at the price level we projected. At ~$34 it is arguably the best value-per-square-inch SIR in Chaos Rising.
AZ's Tranquility — 120/086 — ~$28
This is the Trainer SIR we flagged as "TBD" before the set was fully revealed. AZ himself, illustrated by OKACHEKE, sitting in a garden with a Floette — the emotional payoff to the X/Y storyline that the Floette card only gestures at. Recent sets have produced $95–$150 Trainer SIRs, so $28 is a soft result and a reasonable speculative hold.
Roxie's Performance — 121/086 — ~$23
Tomowaka's punk-rock Roxie rounds out the six. The cheapest SIR in the set today.
Real Pull Rates (Post-Release Data)
These figures come from community openings totaling several hundred packs, cross-checked against multiple independent trackers. Sample sizes at the SIR tier are still small, so treat the rare end as a range rather than a guarantee.
| Rarity | Per Pack | Per Box (36) |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (Pokémon ex) | ~23% (1 in 4) | ~8 |
| Illustration Rare | ~10.7% (1 in 9) | ~4 |
| Ultra Rare (full art ex / Trainer) | ~6.6% (1 in 15) | ~2 |
| Special Illustration Rare (any of 6) | 1 in 85–170 | 1 per 2–5 boxes |
| Mega Hyper Rare (gold) | ~1 in 950 | ~1 per 26 boxes |
The number that matters: you hit the SIR slot roughly once every 2–5 boxes, and only 1 in 6 of those is Greninja. That works out to about one Mega Greninja ex SIR per 30 booster boxes — roughly $6,000 of sealed product to chase a $221 card. Our pre-release estimate of "1 in 6 boxes" was off by roughly a factor of five, and the correction runs in the collector's disfavor.
What a Booster Box Actually Returns
Running the math on a 36-pack box at today's single prices:
- ~8 Double Rares — roughly $12 combined
- ~4 Illustration Rares — roughly $20 combined
- ~2 Ultra Rares — roughly $22 combined
- SIR expectation (~0.3 per box, ~$69 average across the six) — roughly $21
- Gold Mega Hyper Rare expectation (~1 per 26 boxes) — roughly $7
Expected singles value: roughly $80–$90 per box. Against a $199.99 box, that is meaningfully negative expected value on singles alone — which is true of essentially every modern Pokémon set, not a knock on Chaos Rising specifically. Ripping is entertainment plus a lottery ticket, and the honest framing is that you are buying the experience and the variance, not an arbitrage.
The separate and more defensible argument is sealed appreciation. Chaos Rising boxes carry a market price near $239 while the set is still printing, and Mega Evolution sealed product has historically firmed up once print runs end.
Box, ETB, or Singles?
It depends entirely on what you actually want:
- You want the Mega Greninja ex SIR in your binder. Buy the single at ~$221. Chasing it sealed costs roughly 30x that on average.
- You want to open packs. A booster box is the best per-pack price and gives you ~14 hits. Budget it as entertainment.
- You want the cheapest way in. The Elite Trainer Box gets you packs, sleeves, dice, and storage for well under half a box.
- You are holding sealed. Buy boxes at or below market now and sit on them until the print run ends. This is the only one of the four with a real historical track record.
How Chaos Rising Compares
Versus the other Mega Evolution sets:
- vs Perfect Order (Mega Zygarde): Greninja's SIR clears Perfect Order's Mega Hyper Rare range ($179–$230) — but by less than the 2–3x demand gap we predicted. Popularity moved the ceiling, not the whole curve.
- vs Phantasmal Flames (Mega Charizard X): Charizard still holds a premium in graded PSA 10 sales. Greninja beat him on raw launch pricing and gave it back over the summer.
- vs Ascended Heroes (Mega Lucario, Gardevoir): Chaos Rising is more top-heavy. One card carries most of the set's value, which makes box EV worse and singles shopping better.
Shop Chaos Rising
Both sealed products are in stock and ship factory sealed:
- Chaos Rising Booster Box — $199.99, below the ~$239 market price
- Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box — $78.99, the cheapest way into the set
- Browse all Pokemon Mega Evolution products
- Perfect Order Booster Box — the previous Mega Evolution release, $209.99
- Mega Charizard X UPC — the previous-era flagship Mega, $219.99
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most valuable card in Pokémon Chaos Rising?
The Mega Greninja ex Special Illustration Rare (116/086) is the most valuable card at roughly $221. The gold Mega Hyper Rare (122/086) is second at roughly $193, and Cinccino ex (119/086) is a surprising third at roughly $66.
How rare is Mega Greninja ex?
The Special Illustration Rare works out to about one copy per 30 booster boxes: you hit the SIR slot roughly once every 2–5 boxes, and Greninja is only one of six SIRs in the set. The gold Mega Hyper Rare is rarer still at roughly 1 in 950 packs, or about one per 26 boxes.
How many Special Illustration Rares are in Chaos Rising?
Six, numbered 116 through 121: Mega Greninja ex, Mega Floette ex, Mega Dragalge ex, Cinccino ex, AZ's Tranquility, and Roxie's Performance.
Is a Chaos Rising booster box worth it?
At $199.99 a box returns roughly $80–$90 in expected singles value, so buy it for the opening experience or to hold sealed — not as a way to acquire a specific card. If you want the Mega Greninja ex SIR, buying the single at ~$221 is far cheaper than chasing it.
Should I buy Chaos Rising sealed boxes for investment?
Sealed is the more defensible play than ripping. Boxes currently sit near $239 on the open market while the set is still in print, and Mega Evolution sealed product has historically firmed once print runs end. Singles prices, by contrast, have drifted down since launch as supply caught up.
All products ship factory sealed with $9.99 flat rate shipping — free over $300.
